A 2007 article by Young Hoon Kwak and Lisa Ingall, titled “Exploring Monte Carlo Simulation Applications for Project Management”, examines the Monte Carlo Simulation method and its uses in the field of Project Management.
Apart from being a good reference document, where a brief history of this technique is being discussed and explained, this article provides a good review of various studies published around the benefits as well as the potential complexities associated with implementing this technique in real life situations.
The article points out that one of the limitations of using this technique …

Ok, I’m having a bit of a fun with this one.
Submit a copy of your project plan (in Microsoft Project format only at the moment) and I will send back to you a high level risk assessment of your project schedule’s based on a Monte Carlo Simulation.
There’s absolutely no catch. The reason I’m doing it is because it seems to me that many don’t yet understand the benefits of using this technique to better understand the risks that lie dormant within their project schedules.
If you are interested in this FREE …

Over a week ago I came up with an offer to provide readers with the unique opportunity to run their project plans through a Monte Carlo Simulation and provide them with a high level summary of the results.
The response exceeded my expectations and up until now I was approached by 30 readers to provide them with an assessment of their plan.
Having gone through this experience I thought it would be appropriate to summarize my findings from this exercise, without, obviously, revealing the individual nature of the plans that have come …

To ensure the successful completion of a project, it is of utmost importance for the project manager to find ways to handle uncertainties that can pose potential risks for a project. Risk management is an iterative process. Risks can relate to any aspect of the project – be it the cost, schedule, or quality. The key to managing risks is to identify them early on in the project and develop an appropriate risk response plan.

To develop a Risk Response Plan, you need to quantify the impact of risks on the …

In part 1 of this article I raised a number of risk related observations, particularly around the validity of Murphy’s Law as well as the reality behind the Law of Averages.
Another series of Scientific American articles (sorry but I’m a real Scientific American fan), titled “Why Our Brains Do Not Intuitively Grasp Probabilities” and “How Randomness Rules Our World and Why We Cannot See It“ describes the concept of “Folk Numeracy” which is “our natural tendency to misperceive and miscalculate probabilities, to think anecdotally, instead of statistically, and to focus …

I’ve had some interesting professional challenges lately, all of which can be traced back to issues associated with risk management. This is not surprising. In my view, the biggest challenge in any project is properly managing risks. It’s not that all other areas of project management are a walk in the park. It’s more around the fact that when it comes to identifying and managing risks some tend to be swayed by subjective arguments, wishful thinking and gut feel.
Most people subscribe to the reality of Murphy’s Law, namely that “if …

Cursory discussions with young project managers reveal a simple yet concerning fact. Most project managers are aware of the need to identify and manage project risks and most will be aware of the need to establish and publish a project risk register. That’s the good news. Where most inexperienced project managers fail is in their lack of understanding of the need to rigorously manage project risks arising inherently from their project schedule.
A short example can illustrate the issue quite clearly. Assume your project has 5 tasks, each estimated with a …