In the last few days a number of respectable bloggers (see HERE and HERE) made a reference to a paper published by the ESI, outlining the Top 10 Trends for Project Management for 2013 (and if you’re really desperate, here’s their report predicting the trends for 2012)
I hope I am not stating the obvious but, as ESI seems to be a training organisation, its projected trends are tailored around highlighting the need to facilitate and obtain training in a variety of disciplines. There is nothing wrong with pushing a commercial agenda to grow a business but that agenda is not immediately clear from reading the title of the prediction.
Apart from the implicit bias and the sublime emphasise on training, there are two major issues I have with this report:
- The predictions it contains lack clear means of tractability and verification. In other words, comes January 2014, looking back at these predictions I will have little or nothing to hang on to in order verify whether these predictions have materialised and, if so, to what level of accuracy.
- Most of the predictions are vague, trivial or both. For instance, the prediction that “Large projects pose unique challenges that are increasingly tough to overcome” (apart from being obvious) is trivial. Sure, large projects pose unique challenges and with the increase in technological complexity, large integration projects are increasingly more difficult and thus tougher to complete successfully. This prediction is almost as useful as saying that some integration projects will fail next year.
Want to know what my predictions are for 2013? Check it HERE.
Think about it!