quantmleap

According to Michelle Meyer, an economist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, there is a 10% chance that the U.S. economy is already in a recession and a 35% chance of a recession in the next year.

As I was contemplating the meaning of that assessment I realised that it could also be written as “there is a 90% chance that the U.S. economy is not yet in a recession and a 65% chance of not having a recession in the next year”.

The bottom line is that every communication, verbal, written or multi-media, has a subjective angle, and often (if not always) reflects hidden agendas.

In the above example, it is clear the message was intended to be alarming and as such the emphasis was on the worst case scenario.

Think about it!