RT @jenshoffmann: Manage schedule risk effectively with Monte …
7 September 2010
shim_marom
Comment posted on Monte Carlo Simulation for Dummies by Shim Marom
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Shim,
Great overview. Just a couple of details.
1. The five tasks you describe have to be in series for the math to work. In series, the 90% confidence level must also have a level probability distribution, so the 90% has a 10% uncertainty.
2. The term “confidence” should be replaced with “variability.” Confidence is a scalar measure that does not describe the underlying statistical behavior of the task duration. This variability is described by the means and standard deviation of the probability distribution function – the shape of the statistical function that generates the random variables of the duration.
3. The PERT approach not only assumes independence, more importantly the standard deviation is predefined and the distribution is symmetric. Neither of which are true in practice.
4. The actual phrase for the probability of completion is “there is an 80% confidence of completing on or before at date.” Since the PDF shown in the example is a cumulative distribution function. What it says – in the sampling population, 80% of the random completion dates finish on or before a date.
5. The 3 point samples can be used for the Monte Carlo Simulations as well. The MCS can also used a Most Likely (the mode) and the statistical upper and lower limit for a specific probability distribution function (pdf). The triangle distribution is a common one for projects that don’t have historical information.
Points taken mate, thanks.
Monte Carlo Simulation for Dummies – http://quantmleap.com/blog/?p=346
Refreshed my post on "Monte Carlo for Dummies" #pmot http://quantmleap.com/blog/?p=346.
RT @shim_marom: Refreshed my post on "Monte Carlo for Dummies" #pmot http://quantmleap.com/blog/?p=346.
Cheers mate RT @niravbpatel RT @shim_marom: Refreshed my post on "Monte Carlo for Dummies" #pmot http://quantmleap.com/blog/?p=346.
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Thanks for @missdblue and @flowchainsensei got yout TY on Monte Carlo for Dummies http://ow.ly/282iu and http://ow.ly/282iT #pmot
Manage schedule risk effectively with Monte Carlo Simulation for Dummies: http://bit.ly/d4cJ5k
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