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7 September 2010
shim_marom
Comment posted Projects failure rate – the conventional wisdom is wrong! by .
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- RT @/tonyrcollins2010@ronrosenhead Is the project failure rate being talked up? http://bit.ly/al3nUe #pmot #pmi http://bit.ly/asr7mx
- @ronrosenhead Is the project failure rate being talked up? http://bit.ly/al3nUe #pmot #pmi
- RT @steelray: RT @shim_marom: Projects failure rate – the conventional wisdom is wrong! ##pmot ##ftpm http://bit.ly/cE4JLq
- RT @shim_marom: Projects failure rate – the conventional wisdom is wrong! ##pmot ##ftpm http://bit.ly/cE4JLq
- RT @shim_marom: quantmleap: Proj failure rate: conventional wisdom is wrong http://is.gd/dYcsM itgE: Nothing conventional about the wisdom
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The fundamental issue with every one of these surveys is none define the sample space from which they were drawn. This is a common error with those unfamiliar with the guidance of statistical sampling. They send out a survey, collect the response, make some kind of adjust for those not responding.
In fact the proper way is to identify who they should send the surveys to. This is a population sampling design issue.
Never believe survey results from consulting firms selling their services.
Never believe survey results in the absence of the raw data that can be confirmed independent of the survey provider.
Never believe survey results that do not have margin of errors associated with the numbers.
[...] Podcast episode 059: the pdu podcast with Cornelius Fichtner | The pm411.org Project Management PodcastProject's failure rate – challange the results | quantmleap [...]
quantmleap: Projects failure rate – the conventional wisdom is wrong! http://is.gd/dYcsM #pmot #ftpm #pm
Projects failure rate – the conventional wisdom is wrong! Read comment from from Glen Alleman at bottom http://bit.ly/al3nUe #pmot
I present on the topics of Project and Portfolio Management (PPM) and PMOs with great regularity. I ask all of my audiences if they are aware of their project failure rate and I yet to have someone say, \yes.\
I use project failure rate statistics to support my contention something needs to be done about it. When doing so, I always point out the vast differences in project failure definition and computation. Then I share my definition of project failure.
I believe a project should be characterized as a failure when it takes longer than we said, costs more than we said, or does not deliver what we said. I go on to explain I am allowing for the \acceptable variances defined at the onset of the project\ – and that projects are only classified as failures if they are outside of those established thresholds. I also go on to say that just because a project fails, it does not necessarily mean it should not have been undertaken. I have never viewed any of my perceptions as \conventional wisdom.\
First, I find few organizations that even use the \f-word\, let alone provide their definition of failure when it comes to projects. So in my opinion, the discussion of project failure rates in Enterprises is unconventional in itself.
Second, few organizations establish reasoned and rational cost, schedule and performance (scope) variance thresholds for projects. I agree with your statement that \a process that is largely dependent on subjective human input and as such cannot be relied upon to guarantee 100% success rate.\ So if we know that going in, we should ask ourselves what the acceptable level of deviation is in each of the categories for us to approve and sanction the effort. I have found project variance threshold management and administration for the purpose of improving PPM and PM decision-making to be incredibly unconventional.
Third, a project can \fail\ and still be a good business decision. The failure was in the PPM or project execution \process.\ If we are outside of our variance thresholds, then something failed somewhere and calling the project a failure simply alerts us to that fact.
Lastly, if Enterprises do use the \f-word\ they do so for the purpose of assigning blame. Most have a punitive response to project failure. Until organizations accept the inevitability of project failure and use it as a tool to continually improve their PPM and PM decision-making processes, we won’t see much improvement in the project failure statistics you question in your post.
Steve Romero, IT Governance Evangelist
http://community.ca.com/blogs/theitgovernanceevangelist/
RT @shim_marom: quantmleap: Proj failure rate: conventional wisdom is wrong http://is.gd/dYcsM itgE: Nothing conventional about the wisdom
RT @shim_marom: Projects failure rate – the conventional wisdom is wrong! ##pmot ##ftpm http://bit.ly/cE4JLq
Hey Steve, thanks for your detailed response.
Although I don’t fully agree with some aspects of your response I can’t but fully endorse your last paragraph. At the end of the day it is about awareness and preparedness for facing the inevitability of project failure (with the understanding that this failure is conceptual only – i.e. based on the definition of failure being the failure to meet a subset of the planned project parameters – cost, schedule, cost, quality, etc). Using this understanding as a tool for continuous improvement is the key for better performance in the future.
Thanks again for your response.
Shim.
RT @steelray: RT @shim_marom: Projects failure rate – the conventional wisdom is wrong! ##pmot ##ftpm http://bit.ly/cE4JLq
@ronrosenhead Is the project failure rate being talked up? http://bit.ly/al3nUe #pmot #pmi
RT @/tonyrcollins2010@ronrosenhead Is the project failure rate being talked up? http://bit.ly/al3nUe #pmot #pmi http://bit.ly/asr7mx
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